Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Hertl 52.3% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 75.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 57.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Nelson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nelson
Hertl
Last 5: Nelson 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
51.6% (1,084)
-1.7%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
61.0% (246)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
44.1% (136)
-15.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hertl
Home
49.8% (458)
55.2% (696)
Away
49.0% (506)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Nelson
Hertl
P1
50.1%
55.4%
P2
45.4%
54.8%
P3
52.7%
48.9%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.1%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2022 | 3 | 14:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 3 | 05:29 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 3 | 04:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 19:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 1 | 08:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |