Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.3% vs 50.8%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 51.1% vs Hertl 50.7% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 56.7%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 59.5%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 53.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Last 5: Jarnkrok 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Jarnkrok
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
1
0
Jarnkrok
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (398)
51.5% (891)
+1.3%
Power Play
66.7% (12)
54.8% (135)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (109)
41.5% (130)
+2.5%
On power play, Jarnkrok has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Jarnkrok is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (357).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Hertl is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Home
52.7% (241)
52.6% (544)
Away
50.0% (278)
49.2% (612)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Hertl
P1
49.4%
49.4%
P2
51.7%
51.7%
P3
51.9%
51.4%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
51.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Nov 1, 2017 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2017 | 2 | 10:04 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Nov 1, 2017 | 2 | 07:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2017 | 2 | 03:07 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |