Scouting Report
Casey Cizikas holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cizikas wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 55.0% vs Hertl 52.3% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 80.4%
Defensive zone
Cizikas 58.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 62.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 63.4%
36.6%
63.4%
Cizikas
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Cizikas
Hertl
Last 8: Cizikas 3-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Cizikas
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Cizikas
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cizikas
1
0
Cizikas
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.8% (767)
51.6% (1,084)
+6.2%
Power Play
66.7% (18)
61.0% (246)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (176)
44.1% (136)
+0.8%
On even strength, Cizikas has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cizikas is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (618).
Cizikas shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Hertl
Home
56.6% (484)
55.2% (696)
Away
54.5% (477)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Cizikas
Hertl
P1
57.2%
55.4%
P2
54.7%
54.8%
P3
54.8%
48.9%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.4%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
60.0%▼
61.5%
55.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2022 | 3 | 06:51 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 3 | 06:43 | Offensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 18:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 15:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 01:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 1 | 15:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 1 | 15:40 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |