Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Vilardi wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vilardi 46.9% vs Hertl 54.2% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 21-11 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Vilardi 79.9%
Defensive zone
Vilardi 91.7%
Neutral zone
Vilardi 88.2%
Result
Gabriel Vilardi favored at 87.1%
87.1%
12.9%
Vilardi
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
21
(32 meetings)
11
21
Vilardi
Hertl
Last 10: Vilardi 0-10 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
5
Vilardi
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
7
Vilardi
Hertl
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
9
Vilardi
Hertl
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vilardi
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,053)
53.8% (8,268)
-8.0%
Power Play
51.3% (195)
59.3% (1,975)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (27)
46.3% (806)
+1.8%
On even strength, Hertl has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Vilardi is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (934).
Vilardi shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Vilardi
Hertl
Home
47.2% (659)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
46.1% (616)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Vilardi
Hertl
P1
49.6%
53.6%
P2
43.7%
54.1%
P3
46.8%
55.3%
OT
33.3%
46.5%
Final 5 min
49.8%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vilardi
40.0%▼
43.5%
46.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 11:14 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 13:15 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 04:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 1 | 01:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 3 | 15:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 3 | 14:02 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 16:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 07:35 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 1 | 16:03 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 1 | 05:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 3 | 11:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 3 | 11:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 2 | 02:52 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2021 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Gabriel Vilardi |