Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Drouin wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 43.2% vs Hertl 50.7% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drouin 85.4%
Defensive zone
Drouin 83.6%
Neutral zone
Drouin 80.7%
Result
Jonathan Drouin favored at 83.0%
83.0%
17.0%
Drouin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Drouin
Hertl
Last 8: Drouin 1-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Drouin
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Drouin
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Drouin
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (869)
51.5% (891)
-10.0%
Power Play
47.9% (167)
54.8% (135)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (15)
41.5% (130)
-1.5%
On even strength, Hertl has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Drouin is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Drouin shoots left. Hertl is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (715).
Home / Away
Drouin
Hertl
Home
42.8% (502)
52.6% (544)
Away
42.3% (549)
49.2% (612)
By Period
Drouin
Hertl
P1
44.0%
49.4%
P2
39.7%
51.7%
P3
44.4%
51.4%
OT
37.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.7%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
42.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 14:22 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 2 | 13:56 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 2 | 00:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 1 | 17:16 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 1 | 03:50 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 1 | 03:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 1 | 00:40 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |