Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Barzal wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 46.9% vs Hertl 52.3% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 66.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 81.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 81.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 71.3%
28.7%
71.3%
Barzal
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Barzal
Hertl
Last 6: Barzal 4-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
3
1
Barzal
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Barzal
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (483)
51.6% (1,084)
-5.0%
Power Play
40.9% (22)
61.0% (246)
-20.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Barzal is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Barzal shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Barzal
Hertl
Home
49.6% (242)
55.2% (696)
Away
43.3% (263)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Barzal
Hertl
P1
42.4%
55.4%
P2
49.5%
54.8%
P3
47.7%
48.9%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
40.2%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
46.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 09:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 1 | 12:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 07:16 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 03:07 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 18:23 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 01:04 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |