Michael McCarron vs Tomas Hertl
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.7% vs Hertl 54.2% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 20-14 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 74.2%
Defensive zone
McCarron 81.8%
Neutral zone
McCarron 57.0%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
McCarron
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
20
(34 meetings)
14
20
McCarron
Hertl
Last 10: McCarron 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
14
McCarron
Hertl
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
10
3
McCarron
Hertl
13 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
McCarron
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (2,901)
53.8% (8,268)
-0.4%
Power Play
45.3% (86)
59.3% (1,975)
-14.0%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (463)
46.3% (806)
+4.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McCarron is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,403).
McCarron shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
McCarron
Hertl
Home
52.3% (1,696)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
53.3% (1,754)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
McCarron
Hertl
P1
53.9%
53.6%
P2
52.5%
54.1%
P3
52.0%
55.3%
OT
33.3%
46.5%
Final 5 min
50.7%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:07 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 09:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 14:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 09:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 02:23 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 01:41 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 17:07 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 16:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 12:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 19:54 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 19:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 11:52 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 03:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 08:41 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 13:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 06:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 12:10 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 06:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |