Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.0% vs 51.7%). Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Zibanejad wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.8% vs Hertl 51.4% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 55.2%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 51.2%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 50.5%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Zibanejad
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Zibanejad
Hertl
Last 10: Zibanejad 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Zibanejad
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Zibanejad
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
4
Zibanejad
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (767)
50.4% (367)
+2.4%
Power Play
62.6% (107)
64.6% (48)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
28.9% (76)
49.2% (59)
-20.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Zibanejad is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Zibanejad shoots right. Hertl is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (214).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Hertl
Home
51.0% (500)
50.9% (220)
Away
53.1% (450)
52.4% (254)
By Period
Zibanejad
Hertl
P1
54.2%
52.7%
P2
53.6%
52.8%
P3
49.0%
49.7%
OT
37.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
57.4%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
52.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2017 | 3 | 19:35 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 3 | 18:39 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 3 | 18:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 3 | 14:16 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 2 | 09:57 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 2 | 07:04 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 2 | 01:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 1 | 16:09 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 1 | 07:52 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 1 | 00:06 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |