Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Krebs on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Krebs wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Krebs 45.9% vs Hertl 54.5% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 93.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 69.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 74.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 71.6%
28.4%
71.6%
Krebs
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Krebs
Hertl
Last 5: Krebs 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Krebs
2
1
Krebs
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Krebs
2
0
Krebs
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Krebs
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (501)
54.1% (1,117)
-8.6%
Power Play
50.0% (20)
59.8% (296)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
37.1% (35)
34.4% (32)
+2.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Krebs is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (351).
Krebs shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Krebs
Hertl
Home
43.9% (285)
54.3% (709)
Away
46.5% (271)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Krebs
Hertl
P1
45.4%
51.6%
P2
50.9%
53.6%
P3
39.7%
58.6%
OT
100.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
47.3%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Krebs
48.0%▲
45.0%
45.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 06:07 | Defensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 18:28 | Defensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 09:12 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 16:49 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 12:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |