Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kurashev on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kurashev wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kurashev 47.3% vs Hertl 56.8% (-11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kurashev 70.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 66.9%
Neutral zone
Kurashev 60.8%
Result
Philipp Kurashev favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Kurashev
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kurashev
Hertl
Last 5: Kurashev 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kurashev
2
1
Kurashev
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Kurashev
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kurashev
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (203)
57.0% (718)
-10.7%
Power Play
49.1% (57)
64.9% (188)
-15.8%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (14)
44.2% (77)
-8.5%
On power play, Hertl has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kurashev is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Kurashev shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Kurashev
Hertl
Home
45.0% (140)
59.2% (463)
Away
47.8% (134)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Kurashev
Hertl
P1
51.9%
56.3%
P2
44.3%
55.4%
P3
43.6%
60.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kurashev
38.0%▼
43.5%
46.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2024 | OT | 01:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2024 | OT | 01:30 | Offensive | Philipp Kurashev |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 07:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 03:25 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 04:46 | Offensive | Philipp Kurashev |