Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.5%). Look for Colton on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Colton wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Colton 51.8% vs Hertl 52.3% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 60.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 64.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 63.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Colton
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Colton
Hertl
Last 5: Colton 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Colton
2
1
Colton
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Colton
2
0
Colton
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Colton
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (524)
51.6% (1,084)
+1.1%
Power Play
50.9% (53)
61.0% (246)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (4)
44.1% (136)
-44.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +44.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Colton is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (343).
Colton shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Colton
Hertl
Home
52.9% (291)
55.2% (696)
Away
51.4% (290)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Colton
Hertl
P1
50.6%
55.4%
P2
54.4%
54.8%
P3
51.6%
48.9%
OT
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.4%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Colton
44.0%▲
42.5%
52.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ross Colton |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 13:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 01:50 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 12:51 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ross Colton |