Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Carrick wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 53.7% vs Hertl 55.4% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 80.4%
Defensive zone
Carrick 85.6%
Neutral zone
Carrick 54.7%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Carrick
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Carrick
Hertl
Last 10: Carrick 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Carrick
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
3
1
Carrick
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Carrick
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (654)
54.1% (717)
-0.3%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
61.9% (210)
-61.9%
Penalty Kill
63.9% (36)
58.1% (31)
+5.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +61.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Carrick shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Carrick
Hertl
Home
50.0% (328)
58.1% (492)
Away
58.0% (364)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Carrick
Hertl
P1
56.7%
57.1%
P2
51.1%
54.0%
P3
54.8%
56.6%
Final 5 min
48.8%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 04:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:54 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:05 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 14:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:54 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:57 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 01:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |