Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kuraly wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 50.1% vs Hertl 57.2% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 72.0%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 90.5%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 65.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 64.6%
35.4%
64.6%
Kuraly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Kuraly
Hertl
Last 5: Kuraly 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Kuraly
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Kuraly
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (444)
58.1% (823)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (150)
62.9% (35)
-17.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kuraly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (368).
Kuraly shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Hertl
Home
54.6% (304)
59.7% (561)
Away
45.5% (290)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Kuraly
Hertl
P1
55.2%
51.6%
P2
45.7%
63.8%
P3
49.5%
58.6%
OT
0.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
50.0%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 01:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 04:02 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |