Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 49.7% vs Hertl 54.5% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 94.8%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 74.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 60.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Kuraly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Kuraly
Hertl
Last 5: Kuraly 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
0
Kuraly
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
0
Kuraly
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kuraly
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (901)
54.1% (1,117)
-4.9%
Power Play
68.2% (22)
59.8% (296)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (219)
34.4% (32)
+15.4%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kuraly is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Kuraly shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Hertl
Home
51.7% (603)
54.3% (709)
Away
47.3% (539)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Kuraly
Hertl
P1
50.9%
51.6%
P2
49.5%
53.6%
P3
49.1%
58.6%
OT
25.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
45.9%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 14:36 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 07:31 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 03:04 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:19 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 05:41 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |