Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Crosby wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Crosby 55.1% vs Hertl 51.4% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 68.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 77.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 74.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 73.5%
26.5%
73.5%
Crosby
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
Crosby
Hertl
Last 10: Crosby 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Crosby
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Crosby
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Crosby
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Crosby
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.7% (1,423)
51.7% (869)
+3.0%
Power Play
62.1% (327)
55.7% (176)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
40.8% (76)
44.9% (138)
-4.1%
On power play, Crosby has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Crosby is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,229).
Crosby shoots left. Hertl is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Crosby
Hertl
Home
56.2% (907)
51.8% (583)
Away
54.6% (919)
51.2% (600)
By Period
Crosby
Hertl
P1
55.7%
52.5%
P2
55.0%
50.9%
P3
54.9%
51.0%
OT
70.4%
53.3%
Final 5 min
53.5%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
55.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 2 | 18:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 2 | 16:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 1 | 08:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 1 | 08:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2019 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 15, 2019 | 3 | 09:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2019 | 2 | 18:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2019 | 2 | 00:32 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 15, 2019 | 1 | 19:04 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2019 | 1 | 10:25 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2019 | 1 | 10:17 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |