Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Oshie on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Oshie wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Oshie 48.9% vs Hertl 51.4% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 54.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 93.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 78.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 59.2%
40.8%
59.2%
Oshie
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Oshie
Hertl
Last 5: Oshie 5-0 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Oshie
4
0
Oshie
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Oshie
1
0
Oshie
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Oshie
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (58)
50.4% (367)
-9.0%
Power Play
53.0% (117)
64.6% (48)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
49.2% (59)
-29.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +29.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Oshie is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (156).
Oshie shoots right. Hertl is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (214).
Home / Away
Oshie
Hertl
Home
57.6% (85)
50.9% (220)
Away
40.0% (95)
52.4% (254)
By Period
Oshie
Hertl
P1
37.7%
52.7%
P2
52.4%
52.8%
P3
54.8%
49.7%
OT
0.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
45.2%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Oshie
32.0%▼
43.0%
48.3%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2017 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 1 | 03:18 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 2 | 17:00 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 2 | 04:24 | Neutral | T.J. Oshie |