Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 53.7%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.2% vs Nosek 53.6% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 20-13 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 81.2%
Defensive zone
Nosek 59.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Hertl
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
13
(33 meetings)
20
13
Hertl
Nosek
Last 10: Hertl 7-3 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
3
Hertl
Nosek
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
8
7
Hertl
Nosek
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
3
Hertl
Nosek
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (8,268)
54.9% (2,674)
-1.1%
Power Play
59.3% (1,975)
44.7% (47)
+14.6%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (806)
47.4% (424)
-1.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Hertl shoots left. Nosek is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,942).
Home / Away
Hertl
Nosek
Home
55.7% (5,344)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
52.8% (5,705)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Hertl
Nosek
P1
53.6%
52.3%
P2
54.1%
54.0%
P3
55.3%
54.6%
OT
46.5%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2025 | 3 | 07:17 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 3 | 01:56 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 1 | 16:44 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 1 | 03:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 1 | 15:08 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 1 | 12:07 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 2 | 18:31 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 2 | 08:09 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 3 | 14:29 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 2 | 16:08 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 1 | 18:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 1 | 13:08 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 03:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 3 | 09:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 2 | 14:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 2 | 12:41 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |