Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Hertl wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 55.4% vs Nosek 51.4% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 85.7%
Defensive zone
Hertl 53.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 77.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 77.9%
77.9%
22.1%
Hertl
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Hertl
Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
0
Hertl
Nosek
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (717)
53.0% (400)
+1.1%
Power Play
61.9% (210)
33.3% (12)
+28.6%
Penalty Kill
58.1% (31)
45.5% (44)
+12.6%
On power play, Hertl has a +28.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Hertl shoots left. Nosek is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (304).
Home / Away
Hertl
Nosek
Home
58.1% (492)
49.6% (244)
Away
53.6% (466)
54.2% (212)
By Period
Hertl
Nosek
P1
57.1%
53.1%
P2
54.0%
51.4%
P3
56.6%
51.1%
Final 5 min
53.4%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2025 | 3 | 07:17 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 3 | 01:56 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |