Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 51.4% vs Nosek 56.9% (-10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nosek 62.5%
Defensive zone
Nosek 61.2%
Neutral zone
Nosek 66.0%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 61.5%
38.5%
61.5%
Hertl
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Hertl
Nosek
Last 5: Hertl 4-1 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Nosek
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
1
Hertl
Nosek
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (869)
63.4% (112)
-11.7%
Power Play
55.7% (176)
50.0% (6)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (138)
57.1% (14)
-12.2%
On penalty kill, Nosek has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Hertl is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Hertl shoots left. Nosek is 61.4% vs left-shot opponents (101).
Home / Away
Hertl
Nosek
Home
51.8% (583)
56.7% (67)
Away
51.2% (600)
67.7% (65)
By Period
Hertl
Nosek
P1
52.5%
57.5%
P2
50.9%
65.5%
P3
51.0%
61.8%
Final 5 min
49.8%
71.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.5%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
62.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 07:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 2 | 11:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 1 | 09:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 2 | 06:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |