Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hertl wins 62.5% vs right-shot opponents — Lewis shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 56.8% vs Lewis 44.4% (+14.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 94.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 90.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 92.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 92.2%
92.2%
7.8%
Hertl
Lewis
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Hertl
Lewis
Last 5: Hertl 5-0 Lewis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
0
Hertl
Lewis
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
0
Hertl
Lewis
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Lewis
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (718)
45.7% (210)
+11.3%
Power Play
64.9% (188)
71.4% (7)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (77)
33.7% (95)
+10.5%
On even strength, Hertl has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lewis shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Hertl shoots left. Lewis is 38.4% vs left-shot opponents (232).
Home / Away
Hertl
Lewis
Home
59.2% (463)
48.8% (166)
Away
56.0% (520)
35.6% (146)
By Period
Hertl
Lewis
P1
56.3%
37.9%
P2
55.4%
46.7%
P3
60.5%
42.7%
Final 5 min
56.7%
40.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Lewis
34.0%▼
46.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2024 | 1 | 17:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 17:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 17:27 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 09:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 18:23 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |