Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hertl wins 56.6% vs right-shot opponents — Lewis shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 55.4% vs Lewis 47.7% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 86.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 66.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 76.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 73.5%
73.5%
26.5%
Hertl
Lewis
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Hertl
Lewis
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Lewis
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
1
Hertl
Lewis
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Lewis
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (717)
46.0% (189)
+8.1%
Power Play
61.9% (210)
100.0% (2)
-38.1%
Penalty Kill
58.1% (31)
42.9% (7)
+15.2%
On power play, Lewis has a +38.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lewis shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Hertl shoots left. Lewis is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (132).
Home / Away
Hertl
Lewis
Home
58.1% (492)
43.3% (90)
Away
53.6% (466)
49.1% (108)
By Period
Hertl
Lewis
P1
57.1%
46.9%
P2
54.0%
46.3%
P3
56.6%
46.3%
Final 5 min
53.4%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Lewis
34.0%▼
46.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2025 | 3 | 08:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 3 | 08:31 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 1 | 12:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 3 | 11:04 | Neutral | Trevor Lewis |