Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +15.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.2% vs Zegras 39.2% (+15.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 11-10 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 59.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 87.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 74.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 70.9%
70.9%
29.1%
Hertl
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
10
(21 meetings)
11
10
Hertl
Zegras
Last 10: Hertl 6-4 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
2
6
Hertl
Zegras
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
0
Hertl
Zegras
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
4
Hertl
Zegras
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (8,268)
38.6% (1,669)
+15.2%
Power Play
59.3% (1,975)
38.5% (148)
+20.8%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (806)
28.6% (7)
+17.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Hertl shoots left. Zegras is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,228).
Home / Away
Hertl
Zegras
Home
55.7% (5,344)
39.9% (882)
Away
52.8% (5,705)
37.4% (942)
By Period
Hertl
Zegras
P1
53.6%
40.2%
P2
54.1%
38.0%
P3
55.3%
37.7%
OT
46.5%
31.6%
Final 5 min
54.6%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 02:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 15:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:37 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 1 | 14:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 3 | 00:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 08:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 05:29 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 18:48 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 09:02 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 13:40 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 13:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 10:52 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 15:32 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 13:13 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 03:50 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 05:10 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 1 | 08:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 10:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 10:47 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |