Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.5% vs Zegras 42.6% (+13.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 85.9%
Defensive zone
Zegras 78.5%
Neutral zone
Zegras 83.8%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 83.6%
16.4%
83.6%
Hertl
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Hertl
Zegras
Last 5: Hertl 1-4 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
2
Hertl
Zegras
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
2
Hertl
Zegras
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (1,117)
41.1% (559)
+13.0%
Power Play
59.8% (296)
50.0% (12)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
50.0% (2)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Hertl shoots left. Zegras is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
Hertl
Zegras
Home
54.3% (709)
45.7% (247)
Away
55.3% (736)
38.0% (326)
By Period
Hertl
Zegras
P1
51.6%
45.5%
P2
53.6%
36.8%
P3
58.6%
41.1%
OT
45.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.0%
37.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 18:48 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 09:02 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 13:40 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 13:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 10:52 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |