Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +19.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hertl wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 55.4% vs Zegras 41.3% (+19.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 90.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 79.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 85.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 87.9%
87.9%
12.1%
Hertl
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Hertl
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
1
Hertl
Zegras
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (717)
36.5% (156)
+17.6%
Power Play
61.9% (210)
40.7% (27)
+21.2%
Penalty Kill
58.1% (31)
0.0% (3)
+58.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +58.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Hertl shoots left. Zegras is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (138).
Home / Away
Hertl
Zegras
Home
58.1% (492)
38.9% (113)
Away
53.6% (466)
32.9% (73)
By Period
Hertl
Zegras
P1
57.1%
40.0%
P2
54.0%
38.1%
P3
56.6%
31.6%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
45.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
36.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 02:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 15:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:37 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 1 | 14:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |