Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 52.3% vs Zegras 41.5% (+12.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 79.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 71.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 55.6%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Hertl
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Hertl
Zegras
Last 9: Hertl 4-5 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
3
Hertl
Zegras
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
2
Hertl
Zegras
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (1,084)
39.4% (510)
+12.2%
Power Play
61.0% (246)
47.1% (34)
+13.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Hertl shoots left. Zegras is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Hertl
Zegras
Home
55.2% (696)
42.3% (272)
Away
50.0% (770)
37.5% (272)
By Period
Hertl
Zegras
P1
55.4%
37.6%
P2
54.8%
41.5%
P3
48.9%
40.8%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.9%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
39.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 15:32 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 13:13 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 03:50 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 05:10 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 1 | 08:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 10:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 10:47 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 1 | 17:25 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |