Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Hertl wins 56.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.2% vs Johnson 49.7% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 68.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 63.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 65.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 66.4%
66.4%
33.6%
Hertl
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
7
(16 meetings)
9
7
Hertl
Johnson
Last 10: Hertl 3-7 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
3
5
Hertl
Johnson
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
2
Hertl
Johnson
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (8,268)
49.8% (5,396)
+4.0%
Power Play
59.3% (1,975)
54.6% (885)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (806)
42.3% (707)
+4.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Hertl shoots left. Johnson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (4,785).
Home / Away
Hertl
Johnson
Home
55.7% (5,344)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
52.8% (5,705)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
Hertl
Johnson
P1
53.6%
50.1%
P2
54.1%
50.6%
P3
55.3%
48.4%
OT
46.5%
42.5%
Final 5 min
54.6%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2024 | 2 | 15:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 05:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 10:10 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 2 | 10:12 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 3 | 14:48 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 3 | 08:08 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 2 | 06:35 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 1 | 03:07 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 8, 2017 | 3 | 08:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 12, 2016 | 3 | 07:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 12, 2016 | 3 | 00:22 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 12, 2016 | 2 | 10:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 12, 2016 | 2 | 01:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 12, 2016 | 1 | 15:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 12, 2016 | 1 | 07:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |