Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Hertl wins 61.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.5% vs Johnson 50.7% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 53.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 77.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 57.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Hertl
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Hertl
Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (1,117)
47.4% (78)
+6.7%
Power Play
59.8% (296)
57.6% (33)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
100.0% (2)
-65.6%
On penalty kill, Johnson has a +65.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Hertl shoots left. Johnson is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (76).
Home / Away
Hertl
Johnson
Home
54.3% (709)
50.9% (57)
Away
55.3% (736)
51.8% (56)
By Period
Hertl
Johnson
P1
51.6%
44.1%
P2
53.6%
59.4%
P3
58.6%
52.3%
OT
45.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.0%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 05:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |