Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Hertl wins 62.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 56.8% vs Johnson 45.7% (+13.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 57.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 50.2%
Neutral zone
Johnson 55.2%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
Hertl
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Hertl
Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Hertl
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (718)
44.6% (285)
+12.4%
Power Play
64.9% (188)
46.7% (60)
+18.2%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (77)
16.7% (6)
+27.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +27.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Hertl shoots left. Johnson is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (273).
Home / Away
Hertl
Johnson
Home
59.2% (463)
50.8% (179)
Away
56.0% (520)
37.8% (172)
By Period
Hertl
Johnson
P1
56.3%
41.3%
P2
55.4%
41.8%
P3
60.5%
49.6%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2024 | 2 | 15:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |