Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.7% vs 52.0%). Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Hertl wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 51.4% vs Johnson 51.8% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 51.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 58.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Hertl
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
Hertl
Johnson
Last 6: Hertl 6-0 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
0
Hertl
Johnson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (367)
51.2% (825)
-0.8%
Power Play
64.6% (48)
56.9% (160)
+7.7%
Penalty Kill
49.2% (59)
51.1% (137)
-1.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Hertl is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (214).
Hertl shoots left. Johnson is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (785).
Home / Away
Hertl
Johnson
Home
50.9% (220)
56.9% (583)
Away
52.4% (254)
46.6% (539)
By Period
Hertl
Johnson
P1
52.7%
55.1%
P2
52.8%
53.0%
P3
49.7%
48.8%
OT
40.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
56.9%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.7%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2016 | 3 | 07:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 12, 2016 | 3 | 00:22 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 12, 2016 | 2 | 10:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 12, 2016 | 2 | 01:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 12, 2016 | 1 | 15:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 12, 2016 | 1 | 07:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |