Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.8% vs 50.1%). Look for Johnson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 50.7% vs Johnson 50.1% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 62.1%
Defensive zone
Johnson 62.1%
Neutral zone
Johnson 56.8%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 62.1%
37.9%
62.1%
Hertl
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Hertl
Johnson
Last 5: Hertl 1-4 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
3
Hertl
Johnson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Hertl
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (891)
51.8% (548)
-0.3%
Power Play
54.8% (135)
51.7% (58)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (130)
40.7% (113)
+0.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Hertl is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (441).
Hertl shoots left. Johnson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (502).
Home / Away
Hertl
Johnson
Home
52.6% (544)
53.6% (371)
Away
49.2% (612)
46.3% (348)
By Period
Hertl
Johnson
P1
49.4%
50.9%
P2
51.7%
50.2%
P3
51.4%
48.9%
OT
50.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
53.0%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
50.8%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2017 | 3 | 14:48 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 3 | 08:08 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 2 | 06:35 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 1 | 03:07 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 8, 2017 | 3 | 08:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |