Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hertl wins 59.6% vs right-shot opponents — Trocheck shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 57.2% vs Trocheck 56.0% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 72.9%
Defensive zone
Trocheck 66.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 54.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.6%
55.6%
44.4%
Hertl
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Hertl
Trocheck
Last 9: Hertl 5-4 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Hertl
Trocheck
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
0
Hertl
Trocheck
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Trocheck
0
2
Hertl
Trocheck
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
58.1% (823)
57.8% (626)
+0.3%
Power Play
56.2% (265)
63.6% (151)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
62.9% (35)
44.0% (141)
+18.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Hertl shoots left. Trocheck is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Hertl
Trocheck
Home
59.7% (561)
54.4% (390)
Away
55.9% (562)
58.3% (528)
By Period
Hertl
Trocheck
P1
51.6%
56.4%
P2
63.8%
58.7%
P3
58.6%
54.8%
OT
28.6%
57.1%
Final 5 min
58.2%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Trocheck
60.0%▲
57.0%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 10:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 05:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:35 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 08:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 08:07 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |