Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hertl wins 61.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.5% vs Johnston 44.8% (+11.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 94.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 75.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 82.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 86.7%
86.7%
13.3%
Hertl
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Hertl
Johnston
Last 8: Hertl 7-1 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
0
Hertl
Johnston
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
1
Hertl
Johnston
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (1,117)
42.5% (318)
+11.6%
Power Play
59.8% (296)
55.6% (9)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
62.5% (8)
-28.1%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +28.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Hertl shoots left. Johnston is 40.6% vs left-shot opponents (229).
Home / Away
Hertl
Johnston
Home
54.3% (709)
40.5% (168)
Away
55.3% (736)
46.1% (167)
By Period
Hertl
Johnston
P1
51.6%
46.9%
P2
53.6%
40.4%
P3
58.6%
41.9%
OT
45.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.0%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2023 | 3 | 15:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 3 | 15:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 3 | 10:41 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 1 | 06:19 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 18:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 17:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 17:09 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |