Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Hertl wins 56.6% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 55.4% vs Johnston 51.0% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 93.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 59.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 77.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 81.9%
81.9%
18.1%
Hertl
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Hertl
Johnston
Last 10: Hertl 8-2 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
1
Hertl
Johnston
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Hertl
Johnston
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (717)
52.6% (696)
+1.5%
Power Play
61.9% (210)
52.3% (88)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
58.1% (31)
42.4% (125)
+15.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Hertl shoots left. Johnston is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (705).
Home / Away
Hertl
Johnston
Home
58.1% (492)
52.8% (458)
Away
53.6% (466)
49.4% (451)
By Period
Hertl
Johnston
P1
57.1%
48.9%
P2
54.0%
52.3%
P3
56.6%
51.4%
OT
66.7%
70.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.9%
Johnston
44.0%▼
47.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 12:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 09:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:37 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 19:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 19:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 12:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 08:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 11:22 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 03:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 12:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 06:36 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |