Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hertl wins 59.6% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 57.2% vs Johnston 48.5% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 61.3%
Defensive zone
Johnston 79.3%
Neutral zone
Johnston 62.1%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 75.9%
24.1%
75.9%
Hertl
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Hertl
Johnston
Last 5: Hertl 2-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
3
Hertl
Johnston
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
58.1% (823)
47.8% (623)
+10.3%
Power Play
56.2% (265)
50.8% (63)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
62.9% (35)
51.4% (35)
+11.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Hertl shoots left. Johnston is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Hertl
Johnston
Home
59.7% (561)
47.6% (351)
Away
55.9% (562)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Hertl
Johnston
P1
51.6%
49.6%
P2
63.8%
47.3%
P3
58.6%
48.0%
OT
28.6%
46.7%
Final 5 min
58.2%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 19:39 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 18:51 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 11:09 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 04:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |