Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.7% vs Nosek 51.3% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Nosek leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nosek 62.8%
Defensive zone
Nosek 56.9%
Neutral zone
Nosek 59.2%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 59.2%
40.8%
59.2%
Hertl
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Hertl
Nosek
Last 10: Hertl 5-5 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Hertl
Nosek
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
2
3
Hertl
Nosek
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
1
Hertl
Nosek
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (648)
52.7% (355)
+3.0%
Power Play
60.4% (149)
28.6% (7)
+31.8%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (83)
44.0% (25)
-1.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +31.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Hertl is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (626).
Hertl shoots left. Nosek is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (269).
Home / Away
Hertl
Nosek
Home
58.3% (391)
52.8% (214)
Away
52.8% (489)
50.3% (173)
By Period
Hertl
Nosek
P1
58.9%
54.2%
P2
51.5%
53.1%
P3
54.3%
46.4%
OT
76.9%
60.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.2%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2021 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 1 | 15:08 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 1 | 12:07 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 2 | 18:31 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 2 | 08:09 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 3 | 14:29 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 2 | 16:08 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 1 | 18:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 1 | 13:08 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |