Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Smith wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 41.2% vs Novak 43.3% (-2.4%)
Offensive zone
Smith 64.6%
Defensive zone
Novak 69.5%
Neutral zone
Smith 50.5%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Smith
Novak
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (1,023)
42.1% (1,539)
-1.3%
Power Play
39.4% (198)
51.9% (133)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
50.0% (2)
-5.6%
On power play, Novak has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Smith is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (920).
Smith shoots right. Novak is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Smith
Novak
Home
42.3% (556)
45.3% (814)
Away
39.1% (675)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Smith
Novak
P1
39.0%
43.9%
P2
42.1%
42.8%
P3
40.2%
41.7%
OT
75.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
40.8%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
40.5%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%