Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +16.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Novak 43.4% (+16.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 86.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 91.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 93.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 89.0%
89.0%
11.0%
Tavares
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Tavares
Novak
Last 7: Tavares 6-1 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Novak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
41.3% (368)
+16.7%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
46.9% (32)
+10.1%
On even strength, Tavares has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Novak is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
Tavares
Novak
Home
57.8% (614)
42.4% (184)
Away
57.8% (554)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Tavares
Novak
P1
58.0%
42.5%
P2
56.9%
39.1%
P3
58.4%
44.5%
OT
57.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.8%
39.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.5%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 2 | 01:46 | Defensive | John Tavares |