Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +15.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Staal wins 57.4% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.6% vs Novak 43.5% (+15.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 72.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 96.7%
Neutral zone
Staal 91.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 91.5%
91.5%
8.5%
Staal
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Staal
Novak
Last 5: Staal 5-0 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
5
0
Staal
Novak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,096)
40.7% (460)
+18.2%
Power Play
68.4% (57)
61.5% (39)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (222)
0.0% (1)
+51.8%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +51.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Staal is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (986).
Staal shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Staal
Novak
Home
57.0% (646)
47.0% (236)
Away
59.1% (729)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Staal
Novak
P1
55.9%
43.1%
P2
55.4%
43.1%
P3
62.0%
40.1%
Final 5 min
63.1%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 09:56 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 15:08 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 09:50 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 03:08 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 1 | 10:23 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |