Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 55.2% vs Novak 45.6% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 63.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 95.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 86.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 87.2%
87.2%
12.8%
Sturm
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Sturm
Novak
Last 5: Sturm 4-1 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
1
Sturm
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (716)
43.8% (384)
+12.3%
Power Play
67.7% (31)
58.8% (17)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
100.0% (1)
-48.9%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +48.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Sturm shoots left. Novak is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Sturm
Novak
Home
55.6% (412)
46.5% (202)
Away
56.0% (468)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Sturm
Novak
P1
59.6%
49.2%
P2
52.0%
44.2%
P3
55.5%
40.0%
OT
60.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.8%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2023 | 3 | 10:48 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 14:34 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 04:03 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 1 | 07:03 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 1 | 06:56 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |