Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +17.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 59.0% vs Novak 43.5% (+17.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 88.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 64.7%
Neutral zone
Novak 72.4%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 71.5%
28.5%
71.5%
Sturm
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Sturm
Novak
Last 6: Sturm 2-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Sturm
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Sturm
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
60.6% (708)
40.7% (460)
+19.9%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
61.5% (39)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (101)
0.0% (1)
+56.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +56.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Sturm shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Sturm
Novak
Home
61.6% (451)
47.0% (236)
Away
58.2% (376)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Sturm
Novak
P1
55.9%
43.1%
P2
58.9%
43.1%
P3
64.6%
40.1%
Final 5 min
59.5%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 13:31 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 14:28 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 10:11 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 10:14 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 07:17 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 12:19 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |