Scouting Report
Trent Frederic holds a +16.0% FO% edge overall. Novak wins 41.7% vs left-shot opponents — Frederic shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Novak 43.4% vs Frederic 54.7% (-16.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 84.1%
Defensive zone
Novak 59.6%
Neutral zone
Novak 76.5%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 71.8%
71.8%
28.2%
Novak
Frederic
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Novak
Frederic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frederic
0
1
Novak
Frederic
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frederic
0
1
Novak
Frederic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Novak
Frederic
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (379)
57.6% (151)
-16.2%
Power Play
46.9% (32)
66.7% (3)
-19.8%
On power play, Frederic has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frederic shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Novak shoots left. Frederic is 61.5% vs left-shot opponents (96).
Home / Away
Novak
Frederic
Home
42.6% (195)
55.6% (81)
Away
41.2% (216)
60.3% (73)
By Period
Novak
Frederic
P1
42.4%
57.7%
P2
39.2%
54.3%
P3
44.7%
60.7%
Final 5 min
40.4%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Frederic
58.0%▲
54.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:27 | Offensive | Trent Frederic |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 12:15 | Defensive | Trent Frederic |