Scouting Report
Trent Frederic holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Novak wins 43.2% vs left-shot opponents — Frederic shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Novak 43.3% vs Frederic 46.8% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 61.2%
Defensive zone
Frederic 78.2%
Neutral zone
Frederic 64.9%
Result
Trent Frederic favored at 60.6%
39.4%
60.6%
Novak
Frederic
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Novak
Frederic
Last 9: Novak 5-4 Frederic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Novak
Frederic
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frederic
0
1
Novak
Frederic
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
4
2
Novak
Frederic
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Novak
Frederic
Edge
Even Strength
42.1% (1,539)
46.3% (909)
-4.2%
Power Play
51.9% (133)
63.3% (30)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
35.5% (31)
+14.5%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frederic shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Novak shoots left. Frederic is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (618).
Home / Away
Novak
Frederic
Home
45.3% (814)
47.6% (485)
Away
40.6% (860)
45.4% (485)
By Period
Novak
Frederic
P1
43.9%
41.9%
P2
42.8%
48.0%
P3
41.7%
49.8%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
40.4%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Frederic
58.0%▲
54.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:27 | Offensive | Trent Frederic |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 12:15 | Defensive | Trent Frederic |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 06:05 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 03:03 | Neutral | Trent Frederic |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 17:33 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 03:33 | Neutral | Trent Frederic |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 01:00 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 09:14 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |