Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Novak wins 43.9% vs left-shot opponents — Frederic shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Novak 45.6% vs Frederic 43.0% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 62.7%
Defensive zone
Frederic 52.5%
Neutral zone
Novak 63.2%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 63.1%
63.1%
36.9%
Novak
Frederic
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Novak
Frederic
Last 6: Novak 4-2 Frederic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
0
Novak
Frederic
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
3
2
Novak
Frederic
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Novak
Frederic
Edge
Even Strength
43.8% (384)
31.9% (69)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
66.7% (3)
+33.3%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frederic shoots left. Novak is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Novak shoots left. Frederic is 31.1% vs left-shot opponents (45).
Home / Away
Novak
Frederic
Home
46.5% (202)
42.1% (19)
Away
42.5% (200)
30.2% (53)
By Period
Novak
Frederic
P1
49.2%
32.1%
P2
44.2%
35.0%
P3
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.2%
31.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Frederic
58.0%▲
54.0%
33.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 06:05 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 03:03 | Neutral | Trent Frederic |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 17:33 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 03:33 | Neutral | Trent Frederic |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 01:00 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |