Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.9% vs 48.6%). Look for Johnson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.4% vs Johnson 48.7% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 66.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.0%
Neutral zone
Johnson 60.2%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
Nelson
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Nelson
Johnson
Last 5: Nelson 0-5 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
2
Nelson
Johnson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
3
Nelson
Johnson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (347)
48.5% (776)
+1.1%
Power Play
20.8% (24)
56.7% (157)
-35.9%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (17)
26.4% (53)
+26.5%
On power play, Johnson has a +35.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Nelson is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (124).
Nelson shoots left. Johnson is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (648).
Home / Away
Nelson
Johnson
Home
52.9% (210)
48.8% (482)
Away
42.1% (178)
48.4% (504)
By Period
Nelson
Johnson
P1
43.9%
50.3%
P2
48.1%
48.5%
P3
53.1%
47.0%
OT
40.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
42.7%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.9%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2016 | 3 | 04:28 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Apr 4, 2016 | 2 | 16:15 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 25, 2016 | 2 | 05:02 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 25, 2016 | 1 | 05:49 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 25, 2016 | 1 | 05:39 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |