Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Larkin wins 40.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 46.2% vs Johnson 51.8% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Johnson leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 61.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 62.1%
Neutral zone
Larkin 60.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Larkin
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Larkin
Johnson
Last 10: Larkin 3-7 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
2
4
Larkin
Johnson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
3
Larkin
Johnson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (391)
51.2% (825)
-5.7%
Power Play
41.4% (29)
56.9% (160)
-15.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
51.1% (137)
-1.1%
On power play, Johnson has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Larkin is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (195).
Larkin shoots left. Johnson is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (785).
Home / Away
Larkin
Johnson
Home
47.0% (181)
56.9% (583)
Away
44.2% (251)
46.6% (539)
By Period
Larkin
Johnson
P1
42.7%
55.1%
P2
52.4%
53.0%
P3
41.8%
48.8%
OT
20.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
49.0%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
45.4%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2016 | 3 | 10:26 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 3 | 08:53 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 3 | 06:51 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 3 | 03:17 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 2 | 13:05 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 2 | 03:20 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 1 | 09:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 1 | 09:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 1 | 03:12 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |