Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.3% vs Johnson 49.2% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 75.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 72.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 74.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 73.8%
73.8%
26.2%
Larkin
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Larkin
Johnson
Last 8: Larkin 6-2 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
2
Larkin
Johnson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Johnson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (973)
47.2% (286)
+3.8%
Power Play
59.5% (252)
61.8% (55)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (137)
33.3% (12)
+16.3%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Larkin is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Larkin shoots left. Johnson is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (263).
Home / Away
Larkin
Johnson
Home
54.9% (721)
55.0% (151)
Away
49.6% (641)
44.6% (202)
By Period
Larkin
Johnson
P1
52.4%
42.3%
P2
50.8%
56.2%
P3
54.4%
47.3%
OT
43.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.4%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2020 | 3 | 16:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 3 | 16:35 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 3 | 12:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 2 | 19:45 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 2 | 17:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 2 | 11:42 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 2 | 10:17 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 1 | 18:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |