Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 50.3% vs Johnson 48.3% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 67.1%
Defensive zone
Duchene 60.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 65.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 64.6%
64.6%
35.4%
Duchene
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
2
(11 meetings)
9
2
Duchene
Johnson
Last 10: Duchene 8-2 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Johnson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Johnson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
1
Duchene
Johnson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (933)
48.7% (941)
+0.7%
Power Play
58.7% (104)
49.6% (133)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
44.8% (201)
+2.8%
On power play, Duchene has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Duchene is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Duchene shoots left. Johnson is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (862).
Home / Away
Duchene
Johnson
Home
51.9% (534)
50.5% (588)
Away
48.7% (524)
46.1% (687)
By Period
Duchene
Johnson
P1
51.0%
49.4%
P2
48.8%
47.3%
P3
50.6%
48.1%
OT
57.1%
42.1%
Final 5 min
50.2%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
50.3%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 13:46 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 04:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 2 | 04:50 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 1 | 04:21 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 25, 2014 | 3 | 11:11 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 25, 2014 | 3 | 07:47 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 25, 2014 | 2 | 19:03 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 25, 2014 | 2 | 13:00 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 25, 2014 | 2 | 07:15 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 25, 2014 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 25, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |