Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 57.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.9% vs Johnson 53.7% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 64.9%
Defensive zone
Johnson 55.7%
Neutral zone
Johnson 52.3%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Duchene
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Duchene
Johnson
Last 5: Duchene 2-3 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
3
Duchene
Johnson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (248)
55.3% (284)
+0.3%
Power Play
45.3% (53)
50.0% (26)
-4.7%
On power play, Johnson has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Duchene is 57.3% vs right-shot opponents (96).
Duchene shoots left. Johnson is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Home / Away
Duchene
Johnson
Home
54.7% (150)
57.4% (162)
Away
53.0% (151)
52.0% (148)
By Period
Duchene
Johnson
P1
51.1%
51.5%
P2
57.8%
61.8%
P3
52.4%
47.4%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.1%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
53.8%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2021 | 3 | 16:20 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 15:37 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 2 | 16:48 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 15:36 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |