Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 58.1% vs Jost 47.5% (+12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 92.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 84.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 90.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 91.0%
91.0%
9.0%
O'Reilly
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
O'Reilly
Jost
Last 9: O'Reilly 7-2 Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
0
O'Reilly
Jost
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Jost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
O'Reilly
Jost
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (841)
47.7% (287)
+10.9%
Power Play
59.9% (207)
62.5% (8)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
58.1% (148)
39.2% (51)
+18.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (865).
O'Reilly shoots left. Jost is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (226).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Jost
Home
59.8% (594)
49.5% (190)
Away
57.8% (602)
43.6% (156)
By Period
O'Reilly
Jost
P1
61.7%
43.2%
P2
56.2%
52.5%
P3
59.5%
44.5%
Final 5 min
59.5%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.8%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2021 | 1 | 09:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 3 | 11:19 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 18:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 15:44 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 2 | 05:16 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Apr 14, 2021 | 2 | 11:17 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 01:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 3 | 15:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 2 | 17:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |