Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +16.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.4% vs Jost 42.2% (+16.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 95.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 88.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 88.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 90.9%
90.9%
9.1%
O'Reilly
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
O'Reilly
Jost
Last 10: O'Reilly 8-2 Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
0
O'Reilly
Jost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Jost
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
1
O'Reilly
Jost
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (1,064)
40.8% (314)
+15.8%
Power Play
60.4% (260)
37.5% (8)
+22.9%
Penalty Kill
54.0% (261)
39.4% (104)
+14.6%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
O'Reilly shoots left. Jost is 43.3% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Jost
Home
54.9% (801)
42.8% (264)
Away
58.7% (784)
36.4% (162)
By Period
O'Reilly
Jost
P1
58.0%
37.4%
P2
56.7%
40.5%
P3
55.4%
43.3%
Final 5 min
56.4%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
40.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 12:44 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 05:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 19:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 14:09 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 00:08 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 09:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 05:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |